Deforestation driven by urban population growth and agricultural trade in the twenty-first century

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Deforestation driven by urban population growth and agricultural
trade in the twenty-first century

Published online: 7 February 2010 |

Deforestation driven by urban population growth and agricultural
trade in the twenty-first century

Ruth S. DeFries^1
<http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/abs/ngeo756.html#a1> , Thomas
Rudel^2 <http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/abs/ngeo756.html#a2> ,
Maria Uriarte^1
<http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/abs/ngeo756.html#a1> & Matthew
Hansen^3 <http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/abs/ngeo756.html#a3>

<http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/abs/ngeo756.html#top>Reducing
atmospheric carbon emissions from tropical deforestation is at present
considered a cost-effective option for mitigating climate change.
However, the forces associated with tropical forest loss are uncertain^1
<http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/full/ngeo756.html#B1> . Here
we use satellite-based estimates of forest loss for 2000 to 2005 (ref. 2
<http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/full/ngeo756.html#B2>) to
assess economic, agricultural and demographic correlates across 41
countries in the humid tropics. Two methods of analysis—linear
regression and regression tree—show that forest loss is positively
correlated with urban population growth and exports of agricultural
products for this time period. Rural population growth is not associated
with forest loss, indicating the importance of urban-based and
international demands for agricultural products as drivers of
deforestation. The strong trend in movement of people to cities in the
tropics is, counter-intuitively, likely to be associated with greater
pressures for clearing tropical forests. We therefore suggest that
policies to reduce deforestation among local, rural populations will not
address the main cause of deforestation in the future. Rather, efforts
need to focus on reducing deforestation for industrial-scale,
export-oriented agricultural production, concomitant with efforts to
increase yields in non-forested lands to satisfy demands for
agricultural products.

<http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/abs/ngeo756.html#top>
------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology,
Columbia University New York, New York 10027, USA
2. Departments of Human Ecology and Sociology, Rutgers University,
Piscataway, New Jersey 08854, USA
3. Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence, South Dakota
State University, Brookings, South Dakota 57007, USA

Correspondence to: Ruth S. DeFries^1
<http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/abs/ngeo756.html#a1> e-mail:
rd2402@columbia.edu <mailto:rd2402@columbia.edu>

--
Guadalupe Rodríguez
Salva la Selva
Email: guadalupe@regenwald.org
Tel.: +49 (0)30- 51736879
Berlín, Alemania

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http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/abs/ngeo756.html

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