Monday, September 1, 2014

[biofuelwatch] IEA report on biofuel production and forecasts

International Energy Agency RENEWABLE ENERGY

Medium-Term Market Report 2014



From Executive Summary (


Global biofuels production rose by almost 7% in 2013 to reach over 115 billion litres (L), 3 billion L higher compared with that predicted by MTRMR 2013. In Brazil, ethanol output was boosted by a higher- than-expected sugar cane harvest that led to a 2 billion L additional ethanol production compared to the previous forecast. In the United States, ethanol production rose marginally in 2013, as the effect of elevated corn prices resulting from an extensive drought in the previous year was mitigated after the 2013 corn harvest. Biofuels output, adjusted for energy content, accounted for 3.5% of global oil demand for road transport in 2013, versus 3.4% in 2012 and 2.0% in 2007. Meanwhile, the geography of biofuels policy support is shifting; while backing for increased biofuels volumes is waning in several key markets – the United States, the European Union and Brazil – it is expanding in newer non-OECD markets, such as Southeast Asia.



Biofuels for transport and renewable heat expanding, though with challenges


After a period of rapid growth, biofuel production and consumption in the United States, the European Union and Brazil appear to be shifting gears. In the United States, the design shortcomings of previous biofuel mandates have become manifest, leading to policy reviews that have introduced uncertainty in the market. In Brazil, the ethanol industry's economic situation is worsening, partly due to inflation-targeted gasoline price regulations that undermine ethanol economics. In the European Union, ongoing controversy about the sustainability of biofuels has led to a proposed cap on conventional biofuel use that is leaving the industry in limbo until a final decision on the proposal is taken. At the same time, policy support is burgeoning in non-OECD countries, notably oil-importing economies in Southeast Asia and Africa that subsidise fuel consumption, where rising domestic biofuel production promises a valuable option to lowering fuel import bills.


Global biofuel production is seen reaching 139 billion litres in 2020. For 2018, the forecast is 2 billion L lower than in MTRMR 2013. With a less optimistic outlook for the United States and Brazil, world ethanol output is now forecast to reach 104 billion L in 2020. For 2018, the ethanol forecast has been cut by almost 4 billion L from levels projected last year. By contrast, expectations of biodiesel production have been revised marginally upwards. World biodiesel production is expected to edge up to 33 billion L, roughly 0.6 billion L higher than projected in the MTRMR 2013, as stronger growth in non-OECD Asia outweighs downward revisions in the non-OECD Americas. Meanwhile, the advanced biofuels industry faces headwinds, but capacity is expanding. Operating capacity reached almost 2 billion L in 2013, and could reach 4 billion L in 2020, if projects under development come on line as planned. Growth is slower than projected in MTRMR 2013. A number of companies have cancelled or postponed projects as they struggle to secure investments in light of an increasingly uncertain policy framework in the two key markets, the European Union and the United States. Developments in advanced biofuels also continue to remain limited to these two regions.

Exec Summary also has data on bioenergy for power generation


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Biofuels are a wide range of fuels which are in some way derived from biomass.

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